Forecast Index

Read more about how the forecasts are structured, and how to apply them.

Scott Smith Scott Smith

F01: From Agreed Transparency to Engineered Opacity

Information transparency gives way to strategic withholding of data, where states and corporations engineer information asymmetry as a competitive advantage, rather than open themselves up to accountability. 

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Scott Smith Scott Smith

F04: From Special Relationships to Strategic Situationships

The global shift from durable alliances to transactional arrangements rewards optionality over commitment. Those who cannot maintain multiple partnerships simultaneously find themselves locked into arrangements others can exit at will. 

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Scott Smith Scott Smith

F06: From Open Society to Tactical Shape-shifting

The old networks which were committed to social good—working toward transparency, accountability and pluralism—are shape-shifting by changing how they portray themselves publicly and moving more of their activities and communications out of view. 

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Scott Smith Scott Smith

F09: From Dollar Dominance to Money Unbundled

Money is mutating—its three functions are unbundling into a profusion of rarely interoperable money things, of which the dollar is only one of many— requiring organisations to use and support a multiplicity of financial systems that will continually combine, fork and fail. 

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