Each 10F Forecast maps a fundamental shift already underway—it's not a prediction of what might happen, but an analysis of directional changes individuals and organisations must navigate.
These Forecasts are designed for leaders and teams within organisations navigating systemic uncertainty—NGOs, multilaterals, corporations, government agencies and philanthropies operating across borders. They aim to create useful intelligence for navigating these transitions.
Who Writes a 10F Forecast
Each 10F Forecast was authored collaboratively by several authors from the 10F Consortium and represents a blend of voices, points of view and insights from across a dozen contributors. They don't necessarily reflect unanimity; they represent consensus. They are also informed by the broader contributions and ideas of a group that collectively spans strategic foresight, complexity science, sustainability, geopolitical intelligence, AI/technology policy, urban innovation, systems thinking and narrative/cultural strategy—with deep experience advising governments, UN agencies, foundations and major institutions across six continents on navigating uncertainty and systemic change.
The "From-To" Frame
Every Forecast is organised around a "From-To" statement that broadly captures a paradigm shift. The "From" describes the assumptions and arrangements that shaped the previous era. The "To" describes the emerging reality replacing them. These are transformations visible in current evidence that will define the operating environment through 2035.
Forecast Sections
Abstract
This introductory section gives a one to two sentence abstract of the Forecast’s content.
Key Domains
Each Forecast lists one of 15 domains it connects to. This shows how a single transformation ripples across multiple systems and allows readers to navigate across Forecasts by domain. For example, if your organisation operates primarily in finance, you can look across Forecasts listing the financial architecture domain to see how different transformations (e.g., dollar dominance, transparency regimes, migration flows) intersect within that space. The domain tags make the interconnections visible.
Bottom Line
The essential takeaway. This section tells you what the shift means.
Old Assumptions
The beliefs and arrangements that governed the previous system. They are becoming unreliable guides for strategy, even if they worked reasonably well under prior conditions.
Emerging Norms
The new operating principles replacing old assumptions. These describe how power, value and risk are being reorganised.
The Transformation
How and why the shift is happening. This section traces mechanisms rather than simply describing outcomes, covering: what pressures created the conditions for change, what accelerated the transition and how different actors are responding.
Strategic Blind Spots
Risks and dynamics that organisations might be missing. These identify where normal analysis fails to capture important second-order effects or where assumptions about system behaviour may prove dangerously wrong.
Global System Implications
How the transformation affects broader international arrangements—what collapses, what emerges and what contradictions become unmanageable.
AREAS Strategic Landscape
Rather than sorting actors into fixed categories (like allies or adversaries), each Forecast maps strategic positions using the AREAS framework:
Architecting: Actors actively designing and building the new system—setting rules, establishing infrastructure and shaping what emerges.
Resisting: Actors working to prevent, slow, or reverse the transformation because they benefit from existing arrangements or see the emerging system as threatening.
Exploiting: Actors taking advantage of the gaps, friction and arbitrage opportunities the transformation creates. This includes legitimate value creation in newly relevant spaces.
Avoiding: Actors seeking to stay outside the transformation's direct effects by building parallel systems or maintaining old arrangements in isolated pockets.
Shaped: Actors experiencing the transformation without the capacity to architect, resist, exploit, or avoid it and being forced to adapt to conditions created by others.
Positions aren't permanent. The same actor can architect one transformation while resisting another, or shift positions as circumstances change. This dynamic positioning matters more than identity for understanding how the transformation will unfold.
Scenario Pathways
Each Forecast broadly explores three trajectories to help organisations plan for different futures:
Transformation: The shift proceeds to a new equilibrium. Systems reorganise around emerging norms. Winners and losers crystallise.
Stagnation: Contradictory pressures prevent resolution. Old and new systems coexist uncomfortably. Organisations face persistent operational challenges without clear direction.
Collapse: Systems fail faster than alternatives emerge. Chaos creates both danger and unexpected openings as formal structures fragment.
These aren't predictions—they are provocations created to illustrate possible futures each shift might bring about. Organisations should develop strategies that function across all three.
Adaptive Strategies
For each scenario, the Forecasts suggest one example approach for different actors:
Organisations: How institutions might position themselves
Communities: How collective groups might build resilience
Individuals: How people might navigate personal choices
Advocates: How those seeking to influence outcomes might operate effectively
These aren't prescriptions, but starting points for strategic conversation within your own context — a trigger to imagine actions to navigate these different futures.
Current Signals
Each Forecast includes concrete evidence—recent developments, policy changes, or institutional behaviours—that demonstrate the transformation is already underway. Signals include links to sources, so readers can verify claims and track developments. They are also accessible via the 10F Library, an Obdisian vault of relevant sources and the forecasts themselves.