F08: From Energy Hegemony to Power Plurality

Bottom Line

The energy transition is not converging toward a single integrated system. It is diverging into competing electro-digital architectures, stacks that bundle physical infrastructure, digital coordination, mineral inputs, manufacturing capacity, standards, institutions and financing rules.

The United States, European Union and China are each building distinct stacks. They are not incompatible in theory, but they embed different technological assumptions, governance models, industrial priorities and digital ecosystems. The longer they evolve separately, the higher the switching costs and the more difficult cross-architecture interoperability becomes.

The current reality reverses the logic that multilateral governance and coordinated frameworks would strengthen over time. Instead, fragmentation is persistent and transitions are being driven by industrial strategy, market competition and rapid shifts in demand and technology, inside a fractured geopolitical environment. 

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